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Trump’s Deja Vu China Trade War-Part 1

Trump’s Deja Vu China Trade War-Part 1 By Jack Rasmus January 11, 2019 The past three days US and China negotiators have met in Beijing to try one last time before a true trade war erupts between them in March 2019. Higher level trade negotiators will follow up in Washington in coming weeks. What follows is the first of a …

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Alternative Visions – Key Global Economic Developments of the Past Week

Dr. Rasmus updates analysis of key economic developments of the past week: the latest events around the US-China trade negotiations and trade war, the estimated effects of the US government shutdown after four weeks with no end in sight, the questionable reliability of government wage statistics in Japan and the US; warnings rising about the stability of Europe banks and …

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Alternative Visions – The Debt-Deflation-Default Nexus

Dr. Rasmus continues discussion of last week’s topic of the causal relationships between debt and financial bubbles, financial asset crashes, and recessions. How defaults (i.e. failure to pay principal and interest on debt as prices and cash flow collapse) play an integrative role in the debt-deflation dynamic as well. Rasmus explains how, when financial markets start contracting, defaults begin to …

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Alternative Visions – Debt & Its Role in Recession

Dr. Rasmus explains the role of debt in generating financial asset price bubbles in 21st century capitalism, and globally since 2008-09 last crisis. How debt may play a positive role in generating real investment or how credit and debt may divert into financial asset markets instead, creating bubbles and eventual financial asset markets deflation. The latter has been increasingly the case …

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Alternative Visions – Review 2018 & Predictions 2019

Dr. Rasmus reviews the major economic developments of the past year, 2018, and offers his predictions for 2019. Major topics of 2018 review include: Trump tax cuts, Trump trade war, Fed rate hikes. Obamacare dismantling, US $trillion dollar annual deficits emerge, Emerging Market Economies’ currency crises and recessions, global oil price deflation, UK Brexit, European central bank and Bank of …

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Alternative Visions – Europe—‘Sick Man’ of Global Economy – 12.14.18

Europe’s economy is stagnating again. Dr. Rasmus reviews the 3 key elements of its growth strategy: (1) free money from its central bank, (2) internal devaluations (aka labor market ‘reforms’) to drive down wage costs to make EU exports more competitive, and (3) fiscal austerity. Rasmus explains how all three are now breaking down as Europe’s GDP recently stagnates at …

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Alternative Visions – Yield Curves & Recession Late 2019

Dr. Rasmus explains the importance of the Yield Curve (currently flattening or inverting) and its role as a predictor of recession in 2019. What causes short term rates to rise while long term rates slow or fall. The Fed’s role in short term rate changes and the global-US economy slowing role in long term rates converging with short term. Why …

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Alternative Visions – China Trade, GM Layoffs, & Trump v. Fed – 11.30.18

Dr. Rasmus speculates on possible outcomes of the Trump-Xi meeting at G20 in Buenos Aires this coming weekend and provides a background history of US-China ‘trade war’ since May 2018; the latest moves of factions within US trade negotiations delegation; and Trump’s failure to get China to the negotiating table. Also, China’s past concession signals and US responses. And the …

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Alternative Visions – US v. China on the Eve of the G20 Buenos Aires Meeting

The NY Times just published the first of a series of articles on China’s economic rise, timed for Trump’s G20 meeting with China president, Xi, next week.  Rasmus comments on the Times article and its focus on an ‘Epochal Contest’ emerging between US and China. While the Times article analysis is mostly anecdotal, Rasmus provides a deeper, historical explanation behind …

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Alternative Visions – Global Economy Slowing & Financial Prices Deflating

  Dr. Rasmus provides a review of economies worldwide that are appearing to slow: Germany GDP contracts -.02%, Eurozone slows to 0.7% overall. Brexit and Italy may worsen. Japan’s GDP retreats -1.2%. China’s officially at 6.5% (actually closer to 5%). How the central banks and monetary systems now subsidize the capitalist economies. And the most recent decline in global oil …