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John Atcheson – Risk, Climate Change, and Black Swans

It’s getting increasingly hard to make a case for the sanity of humanity.

“One of the most dangerous scenarios I can conceive of is having the countries of the world agree to their woefully inadequate self-determined emission reduction goals, then walk away with the illusion of victory.”

Incredibly, we are heading into negations on the most important issue humanity has ever faced, knowing that the terms we are collectively bringing to the table will not avoid the catastrophe we’re trying to head off.

The negotiations in question – the 21st Conference of Parties, or COP21 in UN parlance, are adopting the 2 degree Celsius limit on warming agreed to in Copenhagen, even though that figure has been controversial for many in the scientific community. Worse, the pre-agreements leading GHG emitting countries are bringing to the table guarantee we will blow by even that shaky limit.

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