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Risk of financial crisis higher than previously estimated International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

The study, published in the journal Financial Stability, introduces a new method that allows researchers to estimate the systemic risk that emerge from multiple layers of connectivity.

“Systemic risk is the risk that a significant part of the financial system stops working–that it cannot perform its function,” says IIASA Advanced Systems Analysis program researcher Sebastian Poledna, who led the study. For example if a major bank fails, it could trigger the failure of other financial institutions that are linked to it through loans, derivatives, securities, and foreign exchange exposure. The fear of such contagion is what drives governments to bail out banks.

“Previous studies of systemic risk had just examined one layer of this system, the interbank loans,” says Poledna. The new study expands this to include three other layers of connectivity: derivatives, securities, and foreign exchange. By including the other layers, Poledna and colleagues found that the actual risk was 90% higher than the risk just from interbank loans

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