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Alternative Visions – US GDP for January-March Collapse—5th Time in 5 Years – 04.29.16

Dr. Jack Rasmus dissects the latest report on US economic growth for first quarter 2016, showing a mere 0.5% annual GDP growth rate. The collapse confirms his prediction of early January 2016, and confirms the US economy remains on a ‘stop-go’ trajectory, having again slipped into a ‘stall speed’ that raises risks of US sliding into recession. Rasmus explains the longer term trends behind the 0.5%, and why the US 0.5% annual growth rate, when compared to the previous quarter, is an even lower 0.1% GDP or less. Averaging over 8+ years, the US economy has grown only 10.1%, or barely 1%, or even less per year after adjustments. Jack explains how the US and other countries have been redefining GDP to help the appearance of growth—including China, India and Europe as well as US. The more fundamental trends behind 1st quarter US GDP are then reviewed–including business investment, industrial production, exports, consumption, and prices, all of which suggest the US economy nearing the brink of another recession. Why the US economy keeps ‘relapsing’ periodically since 2009 is discussed, as well as the likely impact of the 1st quarter US slowdown on other global economies and markets. (For more information, listeners should read Jack’s recent Telesur media article on US GDP posted on the PRN network website—‘Is the US Economy Heading for Recession?’)

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Trends This Week – Is the fed stupid, or just playing stupid? – 02.24.16

The Federal Reserve operates the largest printing press on the planet. It seeks to hire the most qualified people to address current economic conditions and design strategies to maximize future market potential. However, when crisis strikes and with global equity markets in turmoil, those hired admit they are out of touch with the present and blindsided by the future. As minutes from their own meetings show, when the Panic of ’08 hit, which the Trends Research Institute forecast and named, the Fed was blindsided. Were they stupid then, or just playing stupid? Today, from China’s economy growing at its slowest pace in a quarter century, Japan sinking back into recession, Europe’s stagnant Gross Domestic Product, Asian economies jolted by plummeting exports, emerging-market economies and currencies crashing, commodity indexes gyrating between 1991-to-1999 lows, etc., the “outlook” is clear: Global Recession. What’s the Fed’s position? Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer recently said Fed officials “simply do not know” what course of action to anticipate since “it is still early to judge the ramifications of the increased market volatility of the first seven weeks of 2016.”

Are they stupid, or playing stupid by not seeing the Panic of 2016