Alternative Visions – Review 2018 & Predictions 2019

Dr. Rasmus reviews the major economic developments of the past year, 2018, and offers his predictions for 2019. Major topics of 2018 review include: Trump tax cuts, Trump trade war, Fed rate hikes. Obamacare dismantling, US $trillion dollar annual deficits emerge, Emerging Market Economies’ currency crises and recessions, global oil price deflation, UK Brexit, European central bank and Bank of Japan policy shifts, the slowing global economy, and growing financial fragility (i.e. in US junk bonds & leveraged loans, EU banks, non-performing bank loans & stock markets worldwide, China WMPs & entrusted loans, etc.). Areas of potential political ‘tail risks’ that may impact the economy negatively in 2019 are noted. Rasmus then makes 10 economic predictions for 2019: US recession late 2019; US-China trade deal by mid-year; oil prices continue to fall to $30; Fed halts rate hikes; Europe and Japan central banks continue QE policies, UK Brexit talks drag on past deadline; 1st quarter US GDP and job numbers weaken dramatically; US stock markets continue to decline by at least 10% more; emerging market economies crisis abates as Fed rate hikes halt & dollar appreciation slows; and China’s GDP slows below 6%. Rasmus’ political predictions 2019: Trump fires Mueller; budget deficits > $1t lead to new attacks on social security, medicare, and education; US Supreme Court shoots down gerrymandering reform; Democrats’ Beto O’Rourke (the white Obama) runs for president along with Warren, Biden, and other newcomers; Pelosi uses House committees to go after Trump finances & Dems in US House do not initiate Trump impeachment.


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