Alternative Visions – US Economy Stalls Again-4th Time in 4 years! – 05.01.15

Dr. Jack Rasmus analyzes US 1st Quarter GDP numbers, where US economic growth flattened out to a mere 0.2%–the fourth such collapse in the US economy in as many years.  Is it due to the weather, as some argue? Is there something wrong with US statistics, showing four collapses since 2009 all occurring in the winter? Or are there real economic explanations for why the US economy periodically surges in the summer then stalls out in the winter, as it has since 2011? Will this winter 2015’s stall be followed by another ‘temporary surge’ in growth this summer?  Jack looks beneath the numbers for real explanations for the US economy’s continuing ‘stop-go’ trajectory, identifying patters of one-off, temporary factors that typically have occurred in the 3rd quarter (July-September), only to dissipate in the winter quarters, in turn leading to an over-correction and decline in US GDP and growth repeatedly.  It’s not the weather. It may be outmoded statistical methods by the US government. But it certainly is due to temporary events that don’t result in a sustained economy recovery, Jack argues.  Government pre-election spending, restoration of defense spending, business inventory buildups, the global oil glut and US oil shale boom & bust, the US dollar decline and surge effects on US manufacturing-exports, diversion of US business investment into financial assets and offshore markets better account for the US stop-go trajectory, Jack argues. What’s missing is steady wage and income growth for 90% of US households and real job creating investment by business in the US.

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