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Dr. Paul Craig Roberts – Unemployment in America: Another Phony Jobs Report

As John Williams has made clear, the monthly payroll jobs number consists mainly of an add-on factor of 200,000 jobs.  These jobs are a product of the assumption in the Birth-Death Model that new business ventures create more unreported new jobs than the unreported job losses from business failures.  

If we sustract out this made-up number, July saw a gain of 55,000 jobs, not enough to keep up with population growth.  Even the 55,000 figure is overstated according to John Williams’ report: “The gimmicked, headline payroll gain of 255,000 more realistically should have come in below zero, net of built-in upside biases.”

In other words, the 255,000 jobs are the product of a virtual reality created by a faulty model and manipulations of seasonal adjustments. Williams says the real rate of unemployment is not the claimed 4.9% figure but 23%.

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