The Emerging Market Growth Model Is “Broken”; RIP EM

It’s that time of year again, when every sellside macro strategist peers into his or her crystal ball in a completely futile effort to predict the direction the global economy economy will take in the year ahead.

As everyone knows, the only thing more difficult than forecasting the weather is forecasting economic outcomes (economics is, after all, merely a pseudoscience and not one that the general public has much faith in at that), and as we’ve joked on several occasions, getting it wrong is almost part of the economist’s job description.

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